Prop Doctor

How to pick

The top line says what the card is: Points · Floor 24+ (78%) · Lean 28+ (60%).
Floor: the safe line. The player should clear it in most games, even on an off night. The model sets it at the highest number with a hit chance of about 75% or better.
Lean: the more aggressive line, closer to the player's normal output. It hits less often (about 55–70%) and pays more. Treat it as optional.
%: the calibrated chance the player gets that number or more. It was checked against 2025-26 games, where the raw model ran a few points too optimistic, so it has been adjusted down.
Original board: the line from the first version of the app and its chance under the new model.
Drop: skip it. Reasons are wrong team, injury, minutes risk, or confidence under 70%.

Minutes × per-minute rate: 60% from the full 2025-26 season and 40% from the last 15 games, times projected minutes.
Position defense: how much of this stat the opponent allowed per 36 minutes to guards, forwards or centers, from every 2025-26 box score. It is applied at half strength. It reflects how their scheme actually held up against that position.
Pace and defensive rating are shown for context. Pace is already inside the per-minute figure, so it is not counted twice.
Spread: each player's own game-to-game swings decide how much cushion the Floor needs.
Not included: play-type and coverage data (drop vs switch, P&R handler defense). NBA.com's stats API would not respond, and this board does not use numbers it cannot verify.

Start with Floors at 78% or higher. Play Leans only when the Lean % is 65 or higher.
Don't stack the same game or player in a parlay. A blowout or foul trouble sinks every leg at once. Three 85% legs is only about a 61% parlay.
Check late news about 30 minutes before tip: active, starting, minutes limits, back-to-backs. Yellow notes mark known risks.
Bankroll: stake 1–2% per pick and never chase losses. A 90% pick still loses 1 in 10. This board is information, not a guarantee.

Pace: possessions per 48 minutes. League average is about 100; higher means a faster game and more chances for every stat.
DRtg (defensive rating): points allowed per 100 possessions. Lower is better; rank 1 is the best defense.
Allowed by position: stats per 36 minutes given up to guards, forwards and centers, compared with the league average. Above average (+) means a soft spot.

ESPN: player game logs, all 2025-26 box scores, team stats, rosters, injury report, schedule (site.api.espn.com).
Basketball-Reference: 2025-26 team pace, offensive and defensive rating (basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2026.html).
Defense style notes and play-type ranks marked “original app” come from the first version of this board. They are unverified and not used by the model.